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Overpair vs two overcards on the flop: the odds
What are the odds of an overpair against two overcards after the flop?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overpair | J♥ J♦ | 74.4% | 74.4% |
| Two overcards | A♠ K♣ | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a 8♥ 5♦ 2♣ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
The pre-flop coin flip becomes a rout once the flop misses: six outs and one fewer card to come. It is the clearest illustration of why big cards want to see the flop cheaply and pairs want to get money in before it.
Try it yourself
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