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Flush and straight draw vs top pair: the odds

What are the odds of a combined flush and straight draw against top pair?

Hand Cards Wins Equity
Flush + straight draw 9♥ 8♥ 56.8% 56.8%
Top pair A♠ K♦ 43.2% 43.2%
Split pot 0.00%

On a A♥ 7♥ 6♣ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.

Why the number looks like that

Fifteen outs makes the draw the favourite against a made hand — the spot where the person holding "just a draw" should be the one raising. Note the shortcut breaks down here: fifteen outs is about 54% by the river, not the 60% the rule of 4 suggests.

Try it yourself

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