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Open-ended straight draw vs a pair: the odds
What are the odds of an open-ended straight draw against a pair?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open-ended straight draw | 9♥ 8♦ | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| Overpair | K♠ K♣ | 65.8% | 65.8% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a 7♠ 6♦ 2♣ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
Eight outs — about 32% by the river — and unlike a flush draw none of them are visible to the opponent, which is why straight draws win pots that flush draws only win chips with.
Try it yourself
Open this hand in the calculator
The calculator runs the same engine in your browser: change a card, deal the rest of the board, or add a third player and watch the numbers move.