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Flush draw vs top pair: the odds
What are the odds of a flush draw against top pair on the flop?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nut flush draw | A♥ 9♥ | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| Top pair | K♦ Q♣ | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a K♥ 7♥ 2♣ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
Nine cards complete the flush, worth roughly 35% by the river — and here the ace is a second way to win. This is why a flush draw can call a big bet on the flop and cannot on the turn: the same nine outs are worth half as much with one card to come.
Try it yourself
Open this hand in the calculator
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