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Set vs flush draw: the odds
What are the odds of a set against a flush draw?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Set of sevens | 7♥ 7♦ | 74.4% | 74.4% |
| Nut flush draw | A♠ K♠ | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a 7♣ 10♠ 3♠ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
The set stays well ahead, and it has outs of its own: a full house on the turn or river kills the flush entirely. This is the spot where getting all-in on the flop is right for both players for opposite reasons.
Try it yourself
Open this hand in the calculator
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