← Texas Hold'em odds calculator · All matchups
Set vs overpair: the odds
What are the odds of a set against an overpair on the flop?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Set of sevens | 7♥ 7♦ | 91.1% | 91.1% |
| Pocket aces | A♠ A♣ | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a 7♠ K♦ 2♣ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
Once the small pair flops its set it is overwhelming — which is the whole reason small pairs are worth a cheap look before the flop, and the whole reason a big overpair has to be willing to slow down on a board it cannot beat.
Try it yourself
Open this hand in the calculator
The calculator runs the same engine in your browser: change a card, deal the rest of the board, or add a third player and watch the numbers move.