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Two pair vs flush draw: the odds
What are the odds of two pair against a flush draw?
| Hand | Cards | Wins | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two pair | K♥ 10♦ | 58.6% | 58.6% |
| Nut flush draw | A♠ Q♠ | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| Split pot | — | 0.00% | — |
On a K♣ 10♠ 4♠ flop, with two cards to come. Equity is each hand's average share of the pot — outright wins plus half of the split pots. Computed by enumerating all 990 possible boards with this site's own engine, so these are exact figures rather than a simulation.
Why the number looks like that
Two pair is ahead but far less comfortably than it feels, and it also has a full house to fall back on. The draw is close enough that neither player should be surprised by the result.
Try it yourself
Open this hand in the calculator
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